2006 MLB SEASON PREVIEW -- AMERICAN LEAGUE
By Adam Goethke -- 3/27/06
AL EAST
1. New York Yankees
Lineup
Adding the top leadoff hitter in the game to a lineup that was already the game's best is obviously a big plus. Putting Damon at the top of the lineup allows Derek Jeter to bat in his natural No. 2 spot. The Yanks' lineup will probably look something like: Damon, Jeter, A-Rod, Jason Giambi, Gary Sheffield, Hideki Matsui, Jorge Posada, Robinson Cano, Bernie Williams. Not too bad.
Starting Pitching
The knock on the Yankees, if there is one, is the durability of their starters. Nos. 1 & 2 starters Randy Johnson and Mike Mussina are a combined 79 years old, but they also have a combined 487 wins and 6,772 strikeouts between them (cue The Facts Of Life theme song). Add in the fact that they have five other pitchers capable of being quality starters (Carl Pavano, Jaret Wright, Chien-Ming Wang, Jaret Wright and Scott Proctor) and one would think the starting pitching will be plenty capable of carrying the team into the postseason. Pavano (or another starter) will need to establish himself come October if they want to make King George happy.
Bullpen
They have the best closer in the history of the game, so that's a good start, but the loss of Tom Gordon as the set-up man hurts. They tried to replace Gordon with the additions of Octavio Dotel and Kyle Farnsworth, and it could go either way. Statistically speaking, Dotel was the best set-up man in the league in Houston before failing miserably as a closer, but I've always felt that Farnsworth was a bit overrated. Plus, he's a headcase, which doesn't always bode well playing in the media spotlight. My guess is he cold-cocks a reporter before the All-Star break.
Misc.
The now-departed Ruben Sierra batted something like .200 last year, and he was actually their best bench player. Very thin bench again this year, which is a bit scary when half the starting lineup is one ugly slide away from a broken hip. Yanks fans better be praying for a healthy season. If they can stay healthy (big if, I know), there’s no reason they won’t win the division.
Overall Grade: A
2. Boston Red Sox
Lineup
Losing Damon to the rival Yankees is a killer, plus new leadoff hitter Coco Crisp is better suited in the No. 2 hole. Of course, not all is lost: Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz are probably the best 3-4 hitters in baseball. The recent addition of Willy Mo Pena (young stud who strikes out too much, but already a fan favorite simply because of his sweet name) will help bolster the lineup. Count on a solid year from Willy Mo. And with Jason Varitek, Mike Lowell and Trot Nixon following, plus a huge upgrade at 2B (Mark Loretta from Mark Bellhorn/Tony Graffanino), look for big numbers coming from this offense.
Starting Pitching
One thing's for sure; Curt Schilling needs to stay healthy if Boston wants to party like it's 2004. The arrival of Josh Beckett could be huge, but it also could virtually be a non-factor (how many times can a guy go on the DL because of blisters?). Schilling is the best big-game pitcher of my lifetime, and Beckett is no slouch himself; the key will be for both to stay relatively healthy. Matt Clement is surely an above-average No. 3 guy (though he struggled last year after taking a line drive off the noggin – then again, can you blame him?), and the same can be said for Tim Wakefield as a No. 4 or 5.
Bullpen
The biggest question mark on the roster: Keith Foulke. If he’s healthy, they’ll have a solid ‘pen. Foulke is surrounded by a plethora of above-average set-up men (Mike Timlin, David Riske, Rudy Seanez and Julian Tavarez), all who provide a solid supporting cast but shouldn’t be counted on to take over for Foulke if he goes down. Young fireballer Jon Papelbon, extremely impressive last season, might be the man to take the reins if necessary.
Misc.
Same old, same old here. The Sox bench is weak, manager Terry Francona is shaky at best (plus, he reminds me of the dad from Alf) and the ongoing “Manny being Manny” saga is downright stale. If youngsters Pena and Papelbon can fulfill expectations and the two biggest question marks (Schilling and Foulke) can come through, the Sox will be as good as any team in the league.
Overall Grade: B+
3. Toronto Blue Jays
Lineup
The previously-lackluster Blue Jays offense (Vernon Wells was pretty much the only impact player last year) now looks potent with the additions of Troy Glaus, Benji Molina and, perhaps most importantly, Lyle Overbay. Glaus may be the oldest 29-year-old in baseball (I swear he’s at least 36, but whatever) but should be protected as a DH. Plus, the word on the street is that new 2B Aaron Hill can rake, although he’s a huge step down from Orlando Hudson defensively. This should be one of the better lineups in the American League.
Starting Pitching
Toronto spent huge money obtaining the best (“best” as in talent, not statistics) free agent pitcher on the market this offseason in A.J. Burnett. Reality: Burnett’s inconsistency results in him being no better than a slightly above average No. 3 starter. Roy Halladay, an absolute stud, will continue to anchor the staff. The Jays will need him to stay healthy if they have any hope of sneaking up on New York or Boston. Other starters Ted Lilly and Josh Towers also need to step up big time.
Bullpen
After giving the largest contract to a relief pitcher in the history of the game at the time (The Mets later signed Billy Wagner to a bigger deal) for a guy with 42 career saves, the front office could look like real jackasses if B.J. Ryan doesn't perform well. The Jays will also look for production from Justin Speier and Jason Frasor, two underrated relievers.
Misc.
The burning question: what in the world happened to Eric Hinske? Wasn’t he once hailed a perennial all-star type? Now he’s relegated to the bench. Hinske is experiencing a drop-off matched only by Britney Spears and Crystal Clear Pepsi.
Overall Grade: C+
4. Baltimore Orioles
Lineup
With Melvin Mora and Brian Roberts preceding Miguel Tejada at the top of the lineup, look for plenty of action from the top three. After that, however, the lineup gets sketchy. Kevin Millar, Corey Patterson, Javy Lopez, Ramon Hernandez, Jeff Conine and Jay Gibbons figure to play productive roles, but I don't see any of them having top-notch seasons. Plus, the signing of Hernandez is confusing as the team already has a high-caliber (if a bit old) catcher in Lopez. Trade rumors swirled early, but it seems like Lopez is staying put. I'm sure he'll DH some, but the Orioles need him in the lineup every day and big productivity from him.
Starting Pitching
Daniel Cabrera and Erik Bedard are up-and-coming youngsters, but certainly haven’t provided enough consistent quality to be counted on as top-tier starters. Kris Benson (newly-signed, has an annoying wife) and Bruce Chen are nothing to ride your hopes on either. Baltimore needs career years from at least three of these guys, which is a lot to ask.
Bullpen
There is little-to-no hope for Baltimore's bullpen. Who is their closer? Rodrigo Lopez? I thought he was a starter. LaTroy Hawkins? Don’t make me laugh. Chris Ray? I've never heard of him but apparently he's got the job at this point.
Misc.
Tejada isn't happy. I don't blame him. He's one of the best, hardest-working players in baseball stuck on a subpar team. This year’s team, once again, needs its share of miracles to compete in the postseason.
Overall Grade: C+
5. Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Lineup
The Rays actually have one of the better lineups in the league. Seriously. Stop laughing. My reasoning. (1) Carl Crawford is one of the best leadoff hitters in baseball, (2) Aubrey Huff and Rocco Baldelli are solid middle-lineup guys, and (3) the most talented youngsters in the league (Joey Gathright, B.J. Upton and Delmon Young and Johnny Gomes, among others) could actually land some fans in the seats in Tampa. Well, that’s probably not true, but if all goes according to plan the D-Rays lineup could be stacked.
Starting Pitching
Here is why the Rays will finish last. After Scott Kazmir, the Rays have no one that would even be a No. 5 starter on a decent squad. Edwin Jackson could be a pleasant surprise, but banking your hopes on the young arms of Kazmir and Jackson does not a promising scenario make.
Bullpen
Not sure who the closer is here either. Never a good sign. However, Dan Miceli and Chad Harville are above-average set-up men. I guess.
Misc.
The only time people in Tampa go to games is when the Yankees or Red Sox are in town, which, fortunately for ticket sales (and unfortunately for winning percentage), will happen one out every four home games. The promising rookies should lead to some competitive games and newfound respect around the league, but they don’t have the pitching to be contenders.
Overall Grade: C-
CENTRAL
1. Minnesota Twins
Lineup
The only thing missing from the Twins three postseason trips in 2002-2004 was a potent, championship-caliber lineup. Case in point: last year, they ranked last in the AL in runs scored. This year’s lineup is a definite, if moderate, improvement. A healthy Shannon Stewart (fingers crossed) is one of the best leadoff hitters in the game, and the addition of Luis Castillo in the No. 2 slot will be a vast improvement. Newcomer Rondell White should take some pressure off of Torii Hunter as a solid RBI man in the lineup. Still, the Twins will need Joe Mauer to keep progressing as planned and Justin Morneau to hit like he did in 2004, not 2005. More than a few ifs, but hey, at least they can’t get any worse.
Starting Pitching
Johan Santana is the best pitcher in baseball, so that's, you know, a pretty good start. Brad Radke has been a model of consistency throughout his career, and this year, which may be his last, should be no different. Carlos Silva had fewer walks/9 innings than anyone in the history of baseball last year and Scott Baker and Francisco Liriano are two of the most highly regarded pitching prospects in the game (especially Liriano). The Twins don't want to put too much pressure on their shoulders, but they might be forced to.
Bullpen
The nice thing for the Twins is that when Santana leaves with a 2-1 lead after seven innings, they don't have to panic. The Twins have one of the finest bullpens in baseball, with Joe Nathan at the back end and Juan Rincon and Jesse Crain setting him up. I don’t know who their lefty reliever will be, but I don’t care.
Misc.
Minnesota fans are once again being threatened by contraction, but last time that happened, the Twins made their first trip to the postseason in eleven years. However, playing in the once-laughable, now-competitive Central won’t be easy. The outlook is promising, but then again I said that last year as well.
Overall Grade: B+
2. Chicago White Sox
Lineup
The hated Sox have the best base-stealer in baseball at the top of the lineup in Scott Podsednik and two big-time home run hitters in the middle in Paul Konerko and Thome (though they’re both getting older in a hurry). Tadahito Iguchi should improve on an above-average rookie season and A.J. Pierzynski and Joe Crede are no slouches near the mid-bottom of the lineup.
Starting Pitching
Boy, did these guys look good last year. Droopy-eyed Mark Buehrle is a legitimate stud, but after that, I'm not sure any of these guys can reproduce the years they had last year. ‘Twas a fluke, if you ask me. Freddy Garcia is too up-and-down, Jon Garland slipped off big time in the second half of last season and Jose Contreras can go either way as well. I've always found new addition Javier Vasquez to be a bit overrated, but if any of these guys falter, prospect Brandon McCarthy will be waiting in the wings. However the rotation lines up, their No. 4 & 5 guys should be vastly better than most other teams'.
Bullpen
Bobby Jenks was unbelievable in the postseason last October, but can he keep that up for a full year? He just might be clinically insane. We’ll have to see. Cliff Politte and Neal Cotts are great set-up men. As of now, there are no real holes here.
Misc.
Ozzie Guillen goes against the grain, that's for sure. Last year it all worked out for him, but I'm telling you, one of these days it's gonna bite him in the ass. Also, I think he's a prick. Bottom line: living up to a World Series title is tough. The Sox will definitely compete, but counting on the likes of Jermaine Dye, Thome, Contreras and others to stay healthy seems like a risk.
Overall Grade: B+
3. Cleveland Indians
Lineup
Leadoff hitter Grady Sizemore is a star in the making, and Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez hit 3 and 4. Not only are those guys among the best young sluggers in the AL, but the rest of the lineup is solid as well. Jhonny Peralta (.292BA-24HR-78RBI), he of the has-to-be-a-typo first name, had an unbelievable first full year in the bigs (though he’s no Vizquel in the field). Ronnie Belliard and Casey Blake are nice complements in the well-balanced lineup, and you can plan on rookie Andy Marte supplanting the sure-to-be-crappy Aaron Boone at third by mid-May. (Random aside: Hafner has passed Darrin Erstad as the best player in baseball from Jamestown, ND. Even more random aside: I played in a Legion tournament in Jamestown against Brian Erstad, Darrin's brother, who was 10-for-10 with six home runs in the tournament. No joke.)
Starting Pitching
Losing Kevin Millwood, last year's AL ERA leader, hurts, and so does attempting to make up for it by adding Paul Byrd and Jason Johnson. The good news for Cleveland is that they still have C.C. Sabathia, Cliff Lee and Jake Westbrook anchoring the rotation. Hopefully for the Indians, Lee and Westbrook pitch up to par (more likely for Lee than Westbrook) so Byrd won’t be relied upon for anything more than your average #4 guy.
Bullpen
Bob Wickman, the chubby closer, drinks a beer in the clubhouse before entering the bullpen every game (which isn't surprising since he’s from Green Bay. He was probably nursed on a bottle of suds). Don't ask me how I know this, I can't reveal my source (Paul McKenzie, Twins visitors clubhouse guy and my baseball teammate.) Rafael Betancourt and Guillermo Mota are quality set-up men, while Scott Sauerbeck should be sufficient as the lefty specialist.
Misc.
They have youth, solid coaching and have avoided major injuries from the impact players on their roster. Fans love their team and their ballpark (I think), but they're in a tough division and may have taken a step backward in the offseason.
Overall Grade: B+
4. Detroit Tigers
Lineup
This lineup has the potential to be one of the better ones in the league, but I just don't see all the pieces falling into place. Ivan Rodriguez is always injured (and clearly not on steroids anymore – he’s got the build of a high-schooler) and Magglio Ordonez, playing hurt most of last season, was a disappointment. Carlos Guillen is one of the more underrated hitters in the AL and both Craig Monroe and Chris Shelton each enjoyed successful 2005 campaigns. Dmitri Young can play anywhere (as long as he's not in the middle of the field) and he’s solid from both sides of the plate. The Tigers will need all of the above to be productive, and a few to have career years, if they plan on contending.
Starting Pitching
Jeremy Bonderman proved that he can live up to the hype last year and should only improve this season. Justin Verlander is their next big prospect, and I hear he throws some serious heat. Coincidentally, he is exactly one year younger than me (if only I threw harder than 78 mph, I really coulda been something.) This rotation is heavy on lefties, rounding out with soft-tosser Mike Maroth, Nate Robertson and free agent-signee Kenny Rogers, who seems to be hitting his prime in his 40's. He’s baseball’s version of Heather Locklear.
Bullpen
The Tigers had better hope some of their young arms step up big time, because the two stars in the pen (Troy Percival and Todd Jones) aren't getting any younger.
Misc.
I can say with reasonable certainty that picking Detroit to finish fourth in the AL Central is the most accurate prediction I’ve made. They're clearly not as polished as the Twins, White Sox or Indians and clearly better than the Royals. They could sneak up on one of the top three, but don't count on it. Too many injury possibilities, too thin of a bullpen. I’m excited about the extremely old Jim Leyland as the new manager, though. I hope he returns to his old habit of smoking heaters in the dugout.
Overall Grade: C
5. Kansas City Royals
Lineup
The Royals actually got a lot better in the offseason, which wasn't a difficult task. The addition of Mark Grudzielanek and Reggie Sanders gives the team much needed veteran, proven players. (It also means that Sanders will end his string of playing in the postseason. He was like the second-coming of Kenny Lofton for a while there.) With the emergence of David DeJesus as a legitimate leadoff hitter and Emil Brown as an RBI guy, the lineup should be much improved. Realistically, however, KC needs third baseman Mark Teahen to keep improving, they need production from a lot of unlikely sources (Doug Mientkiewicz and Aaron Guiel, among others) and they need Angel Berroa to return to the form that made him the AL Rookie of the Year in 2003. If not, they’ll be out of the playoff picture by the All-Star break.
Starting Pitching
Zack Greinke is only 22, but he’s clearly not living up to the expectations KC had for him a couple years ago. He'd probably be a good No. 3 or 4 guy, but not a staff ace. They added Mark Redman, Joe Mays, Scott Elarton and Bobby Madritsch in the offseason, but all four are most likely No. 5's, and only one can be. Winning with five low-tier starting pitchers is almost impossible. I mean, obviously.
Bullpen
KC's pitching woes don't stop at the starting rotation. Not sure whether Mike MacDougal or Jeremy Affeldt will be the closer, but it doesn’t really matter. Whoever it is, he will be below-average and the guys setting him up won't be much better.
Misc.
Weak team, tough division. Not a great outlook. Oh well, maybe the Chiefs will be decent.
Overall Grade: D
WEST
1. Oakland Athletics
Lineup
It appears Eric Chavez has finally gotten some help. Mark Kotsay is great at the top of the order, and the signings of Milton Bradley and Frank Thomas to hit around Chavez should bolster Oakland's run production (though they both come to the team wearing huge question marks. The former is insane, the latter is a whiner). Jason Kendall doesn't put up huge power numbers but is still an above-average hitter for a catcher. Bobby Crosby should continue to improve and the unlikely emergence of 1B Dan Johnson (editor B’s note: I played against Johnson in high school, and he hit a walk-off homer against us that was so mammoth our pitcher cried on the bus ride home. Warrants mentioning) gives the A's a complete, well-rounded lineup.
Starting Pitching
Barry Zito anchors the staff, though Rich Harden is probably their best pitcher. He has a serious chance to win the Cy Young (that is, if Santana gets hurt or the Twins put up one run every time he starts again). The staff will be rounded out by Esteban Loaiza, Dan Haren and Joe Blanton, all solid pitchers who tossed 200+ innings last year. As in the past, there shouldn't be any problems here.
Bullpen
Huston Street emerged as a top-notch closer last year (he may soon unseat Mariano Riviera as the league’s best), and set-up man Justin Duchscherer was their lone All-Star representative. Jay Witasick and Kiko Calero are also above-average relievers.
Misc.
No easy divisional games for anyone in the AL West, as every team is competitive. Regardless, having Billy Beane as your GM helps.
Overall Grade: B+
2. Los Angeles Angels
Lineup
I refuse to call them the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, and I refuse to believe they will win a third straight AL West crown. The lineup is potent, but I see a lot of potential problems here. Will Darrin Erstad play center or will he play first? And isn’t he the most overrated player in the league, pretty much every year? Will Garret Anderson play left or center? Will Chone Figgins play second, third or center? Will Adam Kennedy play second, or will Figgins? Will Casey Kotchman play first? Who will play third -- Edgardo Alfonzo or Dallas McPherson? How much PT will Robb Quinlan get? The good news for the Angels is that Vladimir Guerrero is still on their team, and regardless of what the lineup looks like, it should be a productive one. Watch for rookie C Jeff Mathis. I hear he's a stud.
Starting Pitching
Bartolo Colon can really log some innings. I'd guess you'd have to if you were that large. The loss of Jarrod Washburn hurts, but Ervin Santana showed great promise as a rookie last year. After these two and 2002 World Series hero John Lackey (tons of upside here), I'm not seeing much. The arrival of Jeff Weaver will help, but he's really only had that one good season in Detroit.
Bullpen
This has been the strength of the team the last few years and this year should be no different. Francisco Rodriguez is downright nasty, and the guys setting him up (Scot Shields, Kelvim Escobar, Hector Carrasco and new arrival J.C. Romero) are pretty solid themselves. Don't be surprised to see Carrasco or Escobar in the starting rotation though.
Misc.
In this division, it probably comes down to pitching and injuries, and I think the Angels are worse off than Oakland here.
Overall Grade: B+
3. Texas Rangers
Lineup
Not sure how the lineup will fall in terms of batting order, but I’m expecting it to be loaded. Michael Young is a superstar and Mark Teixeira may be the best power hitter in the AL. Hank Blalock is a top-5 third baseman and these three are complemented by Kevin Mench, Gary Matthews, Jr., Brad Wilkerson, Phil Nevin and David Dellucci. Expect the Rangers to lead the league in home runs.
Starting Pitching
The additions of Kevin Millwood, Adam Eaton and Vicente Padilla should change this staff's reputation dramatically, plus Kameron Loe looked good as a rookie last year. If everyone stays healthy and Padilla and Loe produce – if if if – the Rangers could be playing in October.
Bullpen
Francisco Cordero is an above-average closer and the addition of Akinori Otsuka as a set-up man is a big improvement over what they've had in recent years. Still, not necessarily a whole lot of depth here.
Misc.
After years of having a loaded lineup and the worst pitching in baseball, the front office decided they actually wanted to try to win games this year. I don't know if it will be enough in this division, but I’m thus far impressed with their squad.
Overall Grade: B-
4. Seattle Mariners
Lineup
Damon gets all the press as the game’s best leadoff hitter, but don’t forget about Ichiro. Now that he's got a Japanese buddy (C Kenji Johjima) to hang with, who knows what he can do? He might have 300 hits this year. The Mariners seem to have a good lineup on paper -- Ichiro leading off, Beltre, Sexson, Everett, Ibanez and Johjima in the middle -- but time will tell. The Mariners have seemed to underachieve every year since losing Freddy Garcia. After losing Randy Johnson, Ken Griffey, Jr. and A-Rod, who would have thought that the loss of Garcia would signify the end of their success? Overall, the Mariners should have an above-average lineup if Everett stays healthy (and sane) and Beltre proves he wasn't just a one-year (‘roided up) wonder.
Starting Pitching
I think Jamie Moyer is a good pitcher. Really, I do. But having a guy who can barely throw 85 mph as your staff ace on a Major League team is not a good sign. Luckily for Seattle, 19-year-old phenom Felix Hernandez was nearly unhittable last year, and he should only improve. I don't think the Mariners want to put the pressure of being a No. 1 on him just yet, but it won't be long. The addition of Jarrod Washburn gives Seattle three solid starters, but they'll need help from Joel Piniero and Gil Meche to have a chance to play in October.
Bullpen
Eddie Guardado pitched through a fully-torn rotator cuff last year...and had the best year of his career. What a stud. Still, being a Twins fan, there's something about Eddie coming into a 4-3 game in the ninth that always kind of makes you nervous. Rafael Soriano and Julio Mateo will set him up, and they should be just fine. However, depth could be an issue.
Misc.
Once again, tough division. In all honesty, I wouldn't be surprised if these teams finished in reverse order of how I picked them. Seattle does play in a great stadium and has great fans. Also, the Asian community loves them. That can’t be a bad thing.
Overall Grade: C+
* NL and Postseason predictions coming Wednesday.
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