2006 MLB SEASON PREVIEW -- NATIONAL LEAGUE & PLAYOFFS
By Adam Goethke -- 3/29/06
The 2006 MLB Season Preview, part two. (Click here to read part one, the AL preview)
EAST
1. Atlanta Braves
Lineup
Even with the loss of Rafael Furcal, the Braves’ lineup should be solid. Marcus Giles or Edgar Renteria will probably lead off (I'd go with Giles) and the other will probably hit No. 2. The Joneses (Chipper and Andruw) will hit in the middle and will be followed by a plethora of Braves youngsters, most notably the impressive Jeff Francoeur. I don't foresee many problems with this lineup. In fact, it’s one of the better lineups they've had in recent years.
Starting Pitching
For fifteen years, Atlanta has boasted the elite pitching staff in baseball. This year they'll have to do without pitching coach Leo Mazzone, who jumped ship for Baltimore during the offseason. Veterans like John Smoltz and Tim Hudson should continue their dominance, but we'll see how Jorge Sosa and Horacio Ramirez respond. Mike Hampton and John Thomson are also still around, which equals six capable starters.
Bullpen
Big question marks here. The Braves start camp with Chris Reitsma as their closer, who only throws like 89 mph in MVP Baseball on PS2, never a good sign. Lance Cormier, John Foster and Kyle Davies, who was in my fifth grade class, will also be in the mix (different Kyle Davies, sadly).
Misc.
On paper, it looks as if the Braves could lose their first division title since the first George Bush's term in office. After all, they have no closer, no leadoff hitter and no Mazzone. But games aren’t played on paper, they’re played on the field (just ask George Steinbrenner). And on the field, Bobby Cox's team has finished first every year since 1991. Shouldn't there be a law declaring that you have to pick them to finish first?
Overall Grade: B
2. New York Mets
Lineup
The Mets may have the best lineup in the NL this year. The troubles of getting Mike Piazza in the lineup everyday are gone, replaced by the luxury of having Carlos Delgado and Paul LoDuca as everyday staples. However, there are some question marks at the top concerning Jose Reyes leading off and Kaz Matsui batting No. 2. My guess is Matsui will be batting near the bottom, with Carlos Beltran, David Wright or LoDuca slotted in the 2-hole. However the lineup falls, you can bet the middle five guys in the order (Beltran, Delgado, Wright, Cliff Floyd and LoDuca) will be productive. I'm not sure whether Victor Diaz or Xavier Nady will grab the last outfield spot, but I'm hoping it goes to Nady, who deserved to play everyday when he was in San Diego.
Starting Pitching
Pedro Martinez is still one of the best pitchers in the game, but he’s injury-prone and, frankly, sometimes seems like he just doesn't care all that much. Tom Glavine should be consistent but obviously nowhere near what he was in the '90's. Victor Zambrano, Aaron Heilman and Steve Trachsel will fill in the other spots.
Bullpen
Signing Billy Wagner to replace Braden Looper is like replacing a White Castle slider with prime rib. But the guys setting him up are suspect. Duaner Sanchez, Jorge Julio and Chad Bradford will be Wagner’s ‘pen-mates.
Misc.
The Mets may play second fiddle to the same-town Yankees, but this year’s squad could be just as successful.
Overall Grade: B
3. Philadelphia Phillies
Lineup
Jimmy Rollins leads off the lineup and the season with a chance at Joe DiMaggio's 56-game hitting streak. It's unlikely he'll get there, but in any event he's well above-average as a leadoff man. Bobby Abreu is finally a household name after his ridiculous display at last year's Home Run Derby, although he should have been four years ago. Ryan Howard and Chase Utley are studs, and Pat Burrell, who’s seen statistical improvements in each of the last three seasons, is finally coming along as planned.
Starting Pitching
Brett Myers is the best pitcher on the staff, striking out almost a batter per inning. After that, look for Jon Lieber and Randy Wolf to be consistently so-so, and the final two spots to be filled by the likes of Cory Lidle, Ryan Franklin, Ryan Madson and Gavin Floyd. The Phils will need two of those four to step up if they want a shot at the postseason.
Bullpen
Tom Gordon is the closer (I think) and he will have Arthur Rhodes, Rheal Cormier and possibly Franklin and Floyd setting him up. This bullpen is big on lefties ( Rhodes, Cormier and Aaron Fultz), which is rare but not exactly ideal.
Misc.
With Thome gone there are no huge injury risks, but not a lot of depth at any position on the roster. It’ll take a few career years for Philly to win the division.
Overall Grade: B-
4. Washington Nationals
Lineup
Not many leadoff options, but some pop in the middle. At this point, Jose Vidro seems like the best fit at the top of the order. Alfonso Soriano doesn't want to play left field but the Nats don't seem to care, they just want his bat in the lineup. Jose Guillen broke out last year and should be a force again in 2006. Nick Johnson continues to improve and Brian Schneider is an above-average catcher. Washington will need 3B prospect Ryan Zimmerman to be huge and Christian Guzman to break out of his four-year slump (good luck suckers) for this team to have a chance. Plus, there'll be a lot of below-average bats in the lineup every day (Ryan Church, Marlon Byrd, among others). That’s always nice.
Starting Pitching
And he shall be Livan, and he shall be a good man. Livan Hernandez could probably throw 300 innings this year if he wanted to. He doesn't seem to be getting any older. The additions of Ryan Drese and Brian Lawrence should help, but they won't be winning the Cy Young or anything.
Bullpen
Chad Cordero was the best closer in baseball in the first half last year, and will need to have a similar season. Luis Ayala is a quality set-up man, and the additions of Felix Rodriguez and Mike Stanton could help.
Misc.
Are they playing in a real stadium this year? Who knows. Do they have any chance of getting to the postseason? Slim, but that's better than most years.
Overall Grade: C
5. Florida Marlins
Lineup
Four teams happy about the Marlins' fire sale this winter: Mets (addition of Carlos Delgado), Twins (Luis Castillo), Red Sox (Mike Lowell and Josh Beckett) and the Royals (no longer the worst team in baseball). Miguel Cabrera is one of the best hitters in baseball, but I wouldn't be surprised to see his numbers take a huge nosedive this year since he’ll have no support. Josh Willingham has a big bat and will either catch or play left, thus moving Cabrera back to third. Mike Jacobs will probably play first, and he has some potential, as does OF Jeremy Hermida and SS Hanley Ramirez. After that, and possibly even with that, this lineup will have a lot of holes.
Starting Pitching
Dontrelle Willis is a stud, we know that. After him, there's absolutely nothing. Brian Moehler, Sergio Mitre and others will be in the mix. (Don’t sweat it if you haven’t heard of those guys, not many people have.) If Willis gets hurt, they go from very bad to cover-your-eyes terrible.
Bullpen
The bullpen is worse than the starting pitching. Travis Bowyer, who may not have even made the Twins roster this year, may be their best set-up option. Joe Borowski is the likely closer, but he's no good. The Marlins better hope that somebody, actually better make that two or three somebodies, step up and establish themselves.
Misc.
Marlins fans have been spoiled. I kind of hate them for that. The team was around for five years, won a World Series, got rid of everyone, and won another one six years later. Still, the fan support is abysmal. The Marlins will be fortunate to not lose 100 games this season, and if you ask me, they deserve to suck for a few years.
Overall Grade: D
CENTRAL
1. St. Louis Cardinals
Lineup
Larry Walker and Reggie Sanders are gone, replaced by downgrades Larry Bigbie and Juan Encarnacion. Junior Spivey replaces Mark Grudzielanek at second, most likely another downgrade. From the looks of it, the Cards are heading in the wrong direction. But they still have Albert Pujols, Scott Rolen and Jim Edmonds hitting in the middle of the lineup, and that ain’t half bad. David Eckstein (everyone’s favorite midget Republican) leads off with Spivey likely following him in the order, setting the table for Pujols and Co. The bottom gets sketchy with Encarnacion, Bigbie and Yadier Molina, but the middle should more than make up for it.
Starting Pitching
Chris Carpenter and Mark Mulder are the perfect righty-lefty 1-2, and Jeff Suppan and Jason Marquis should be quality in the 3-4 spots. Sidney Ponson will replace Matt Morris, another big downgrade. The Cards will be hoping that 250-pounder Ponson can pitch like he eats.
Bullpen
Jason Isringhausen has been a steady closer when healthy, but St. Louis will need Ricardo Rincon and Braden Looper to bounce back from disappointing years to make up for the loss of Crazy Julian Tavarez. Tony LaRussa teams are always “make or break” on his bullpen.
Misc.
Great fans, great history, great new stadium. The downside: LaRussa has coached so many times to the playoffs people assume he’s a great manager, but his teams have never done much in the postseason.
Overall Grade: B
2. Houston Astros
Lineup
The Astros' pitching staff was rewarded for a season's worth of hard work with a trip to the World Series last year only to watch their pathetic lineup muster up the most embarrassing display of postseason hitting I’ve ever seen. Poor Lance Berkman was the only player in the lineup bearable to watch. Anyway, on to this season. Craig Biggio will leadoff and can still produce, and base-stealing threat Willy Taveras will bat second. Berkman will bat third, followed by Morgan Ensberg, a guy that needs to prove last season’s success wasn’t just a fluke. The addition of RBI-machine Preston Wilson will help and Jason Lane is a good No. 6 hitter before the lineup gets brutal near the bottom. The 'Stros lineup should be an improvement from last year. Then again, the only way they could bat worse than last year (especially the postseason) would be if they used licorice whips as bats.
Starting Pitching
The big question in Houston is whether or not Roger Clemens will be back. If he is, Houston has possibly the best staff in the NL. Without him, they are still solid but nowhere near as dominant. Roy Oswalt is absolutely nasty and Andy Pettitte is still pitching well. Brandon Backe, if Clemens comes back, is one of the better No. 4 starters in baseball and the staff will probably be rounded out Wandy Rodriguez, a decent lefty. Like last year, Houston's success rests on the collective shoulders of the pitching staff.
Bullpen
No problems here either. Brad Lidge is a top-5 closer (though he may be permanently scarred by last year’s postseason performance), and Dan Wheeler and Chad Qualls are solid set-up guys.
Misc.
The ‘Stros return most of their core players from last year’s NL Championship team, so spirits are high. Still, like last year, much of Houston’s success (or failure) is riding on whether Clemens is a factor.
Overall Grade: B
3. Chicago Cubs
Lineup
Solid at the top with newly-acquired Juan Pierre, and still boasting a sweet mid-lineup with Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez. After that, nothing special. Michael Barrett is one of the better hitting catchers in the NL and Jacque Jones should be fine, but there are question marks in left field with Matt Murton and John Mabry and short with Neifi Perez, among others. Top to bottom, just a so-so lineup.
Starting Pitching
A lot of big names here, but very few of them live up to their reputation. The Cubs will need Kerry Wood and Mark Prior to stay healthy for once (fat chance) and hope that Greg Maddux can bounce back from his first non-15-win season in over a decade. Carlos Zambrano is their most consistent pitcher and the addition of Wade Miller should help. If they stay healthy, they're great. If not, it could be a long season at Wrigley (which is still probably more fun than a great year at the Metrodome).
Bullpen
Ryan Dempster did a fine job in the closer role last year, but he doesn't seem like a prototypical closer, so this year could be interesting. The guys setting him up are average, but the addition of Bobby Howry and Scott Eyre might help.
Misc.
Great fan base, great ballpark, no expectations, serious potential injury problems. Could go either way.
Overall Grade: C+
4. Milwaukee Brewers
Lineup
Carlos Lee and Geoff Jenkins get some help near the middle of the lineup with much-awaited debut of 1B Prince Fielder and arrival of Corey Koskie. Brady Clark probably leads off and youngster J.J. Hardy may win the job at short over Bill Hall. The Brewers will need their young stars (Fielder, Hardy and Rickie Weeks) to learn fast.
Starting Pitching
Ben Sheets is solid but needs to stay healthy. Chris Capuano is coming off an 18-win season and could duplicate that effort. Former Blue Jay David Bush will be in the mix, as will Doug Davis. Milwaukee will need Sheets to stay healthy and others to step up big time if they have any hopes of playing in October.
Bullpen
The Brewers turned Derrick Turnbow into a solid closer last year and he'll have Dan Kolb returning to Milwaukee to set him up after a brutal season in Atlanta. Mike Adams and Matt Wise are also quality relievers.
Misc.
The Brewers seem to be everyone's long-shot pick this year. I think they're still a couple years away.
Overall Grade: C+
5. Cincinnati Reds
Lineup
The departure of Sean Casey and Willy Mo Pena certainly won’t help the lineup. Dunn is one of the biggest home run threats in baseball and Griffey showed he can still put up solid numbers if healthy. Kearns is decent, but not great. Tony Womack will likely start the year at second and leading off, and third likely goes to Ryan Freel. Felipe Lopez was their lone All-Star last year at short and Jason LaRue is a durable catcher. Decent lineup, nothing noteworthy.
Starting Pitching
This is the biggest reason why we won't be watching any postseason games televised from Cincinnati. Who is their No. 1? Paul Wilson? Eric Milton? Whoever it is, he's a suitable 3 or 4, not an ace. After these two, things only get worse. Aaron Harang and Brandon Claussen are capable of being productive, but don't count on too much. Pretty thin.
Bullpen
Who is the closer? Jason Standridge? Ryan Wagner? David Weathers? Not a good sign. Lots of capable arms to set up the closer, but no one that stands out.
Misc.
Griffey is obviously very prone to injuries and the pitching staff is unproven at best.
Overall Grade: C-
6. Pittsburgh Pirates
Lineup
Jose Castillo and Jack Wilson probably bat 1-2, not necessarily in that order, but don't be surprised to see young CF Chris Duffy near the top if he mimics last year's performance (.341 in 126 AB.) Jason Bay finally has some hitters to bat around him in Sean Casey and Jeromy Burnitz, and Joe Randa takes over at third. Nothing special about this lineup, but it's better than in recent years. A little.
Starting Pitching
Oliver Perez has the capability of being dominant, but last year he spent most of his time either injured or erratic. 22-year-old Zach Duke was unbelievable last year (8-2, 1.81ERA in 14 starts), but he won’t have much help. Kip Wells will be in the rotation but will need to improve on last year's 8-18 record if he plans on remaining a starter. Pittsburgh will look for help from unlikely sources Sean Burnett and Victor Santos, among others.
Bullpen
Roberto Hernandez is the closer, and he has made a career of racking up saves for bad teams. Same story here. Damaso Marte and Mike Gonzalez are two solid lefties and Salomon Torres and Ryan Vogelsong are probably the top two righties. Nothing special, but not too bad.
Misc.
Lots of teams ahead of them, but they should be better than in recent years.
Overall Grade: C-
WEST
1. San Francisco Giants
Lineup
This lineup is old, very, very old. If they played in any other division, the Giants are likely a fourth place team, but in the paltry NL West, these geezers could be the team to beat. I see the lineup looking like this; 2B Ray Durham (34 years old), SS Omar Vizquel (38), LF Bonds (41), RF Moises Alou (39), 3B Pedro Feliz (30), CF Steve Finley (40), 1B Lance Niekro (27) and C Mike Matheny (35). That's 120 years just between their three outfielders. Expect to see a lot of opposing teams hit triples in San Fran.
Starting Pitching
Jason Schmidt is a stud when healthy, but that’s a rare occurrence. 21-year-old Matt Cain will need to progress as expected and the addition of Matt Morris gives them a decent No. 2. Noah Lowry will be in the rotation, and he's a decent No. 4 or 5. Kevin Correia or Brad Hennessy (who is 14-4 in my current season of MVP Baseball) probably get the last spot.
Bullpen
Armando Benitez is the closer, who can either be great or terrible. He should be better than most closers though. A decent set-up crew includes Steve Kline, Tyler Walker, Merkin Valdez and the re-arrival of Tim Worrell.
Misc.
Obviously, the fortunes of the Giants rest on Barry Bonds' knee. I'm hoping he hurts it and can never play baseball again.
Overall Grade: B-
2. Los Angeles Dodgers
Lineup
How many shortstops do you need on one roster? Rafael Furcal will get the nod, sending Cesar Izturis to the bench. Nomar Garciaparra will play first, sending Hee-Seop Choi to the bench. Bill Mueller will play third and Jeff Kent will play second. J.D. Drew starts in right and Jayson Werth in left. Expect to see either Kenny Lofton or Jose Cruz, Jr. in center. Every starter needs to avoid injury if the Dodgers are going to score any runs.
Starting Pitching
A lot of No. 2 and 3's might make up for the lack of a true No. 1. Derek Lowe and Brad Penny are probably the best on the staff, but Odalis Perez and Brett Tomko aren't much worse. Still, nothing to bank your hopes on.
Bullpen
Eric Gagne is awesome, if he isn't “injured” like last year (read: adjusting to life off the juice). Danys Baez, Yhency Brazoban and Lance Carter provide make up a solid set-up staff, and Baez provides some closing insurance if Gagne gets hurt.
Misc.
Wide open division, but they can't afford any injuries.
Overall Grade: B-
3. San Diego Padres
Starting Pitching
Brian Giles can hit and, sometimes, so can Ryan Klesko. Khalil Greene (he’s white, by the way – I was shocked too) will continue to improve at the plate and the addition of Mike Piazza might help. Mike Cameron, Dave Roberts, Terrmel Sledge, Vinny Castilla and Eric Young will all play big roles. Be on the lookout for rookie 2B Josh Barfield, son of former Blue Jay Jesse.
Starting Pitching
Jake Peavy could win the NL Cy Young, but he won't get any significant help. Woody Williams is pretty old (39) and those that follow have been inconsistent throughout their careers. The rotation will be filled out by pitchers such as Chan Ho Park, Shawn Estes, Dewon Brazelton and Chris Young.
Bullpen
Trevor Hoffman returns as the closer, one of the finest the game has ever seen, but the Padres don't have the set-up staff they had a year ago. Scott Linebrink is one of the best, but there isn't much depth.
Misc.
A team loaded with traditional power hitters (Piazza, Castilla, Klesko, Giles) may get frustrated playing in the pitcher-friendly Petco Park. The Padres are a popular choice by sportswriters for a postseason appearance, but they’ve got a few speed bumps to hurdle.
Overall Grade: C+
4. Arizona Diamondbacks
Lineup
The outfield is solid with Luis Gonzalez in left, Shawn Green in right and Eric Byrnes in center (although he's better suited in a corner outfield spot). They won't get much power at 1B with Chad Tracy and Tony Clark (you just know he’s due for a letdown season) but should be solid up the middle defensively with Orlando Hudson and Alex Cintron. Don't be surprised to see Stephen Drew (brother of J.D.) at short in the near future. Overall, an average lineup.
Starting Pitching
Russ Ortiz and Brandon Webb are okay, but after that there isn't much. Orlando Hernandez and Miguel Batista better step up or the Diamondbacks won't crack 75 wins, even in this lame-ass division.
Bullpen
I'm not sure who the closer is here either. Greg Aquino was okay two years ago, but terrible last year. However, Aquino, Jason Grimsley, Brandon Lyon and Luis Vizcaino present a wide array of possibilities, though it's not likely any of them will be top-notch.
Misc.
A million times more likely to win their respective division than their counterpart Devil Rays, even though the Rays are a far superior squad.
Overall Grade: C
5. Colorado Rockies
Lineup
First, allow me to mention how glad I am to be writing about the Rockies, because that means I’m almost done with this season preview. When I started writing this thing 26 hours ago, I was bored and I thought it would be fun. I didn't realize it would take me so long. Keep in mind I don't have a job so I wrote last night until 4 a.m. and all day once I woke up (which was at 2 p.m.). Broxey better put this on his site. (Editor B’s note: you are welcome.) Anyway, the Rockies are not good. Todd Helton can hit and Clint Barmes got off to a great start last year before getting hurt, which screwed my fantasy team. After that, the Rockies are hoping youngsters Matt Holliday, Garrett Atkins and J.D. Closser live up to the hype. Basically, Luis A. Gonzales will hit leadoff for a lineup full of a bunch of guys you've never heard of who actually aren't half bad.
Starting Pitching
Really, really bad. Are they even trying? Jason Jennings is their best pitcher, which doesn't say much for everyone else.
Bullpen
Maybe the Rockies figure that the starters will give up six runs through six innings no matter what, so better to concentrate on the bullpen. It doesn't seem to make sense, but the bullpen is actually decent. Jose Mesa is the closer and Mike DeJean, Ray King and Brian Fuentes will set him up. Nothing special, but much better than the starting staff.
Misc.
Crazy altitude, man. You'd think this would bring some kind of home field advantage, but the Rockies' best season was their first one. They shall suck once again.
Overall Grade: D+
***
AL MVP: Manny Ramirez (Bos)
AL Cy Young: Johan Santana (Min)
AL Rookie of the Year: Kenji Johjima (Sea)
AL Manager of the Year: Ron Gardenhire (Min)
NL MVP: Albert Pujols (StL)
NL Cy Young: Roy Oswalt (Hou)
NL Rookie of the Year: Ryan Zimmerman (Wash)
NL Manager of the Year: Ned Yost (Mil)
AL Playoffs, Wild Card:
NY Yankees over Chicago WS, 3-1
Oakland over Minnesota, 3-2
NL Playoffs, Wild Card:
NY Mets over St. Louis, 3-2
San Francisco over Atlanta, 3-2
LCS:
Oakland over NY Yankees, 4-3
NY Mets over San Francisco, 4-2
World Series:
Oakland over NY Mets, 4-2
TAKE ME TO THE TOP
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